Non commencé
Morecambe - Hereford pronostic, cotes et conseils paris - 10-11-2026
10 nov.19:45
Pronostic du match
Score attendu : Morecambe 0-1 Hereford
MorecambeMatch nulHereford
Plus de 2,5 butsNon (34%)
Les deux équipes marquentNon (38%)
Morecambe host Hereford at The Mazuma Stadium in National League North on 17 October, a fixture that pits a struggling mid-table side against the division's second-placed outfit. The hosts sit 17th with 14 points from 11 games, while Hereford occupy second with 23 points and a markedly superior goal difference. The gap in quality is substantial, and the betting market reflects it decisively.
Team form
Morecambe
Morecambe's recent record masks underlying inconsistency. They won three of their last five matches—4-0 over Buxton, 1-0 at Chester, and 2-1 against AFC Telford United—but sandwiched those victories around two defeats. They scored 8 goals across those five games but conceded 4, averaging 1.6 scored and 0.8 conceded per match. Over the full season, their output drops to 1.36 per game with 1.00 conceded. The wins came against weaker opposition; the losses to Radcliffe and South Shields suggest they struggle against better-organised teams.
Hereford
Hereford's form is substantially more convincing. They have won three of their last five, including dominant 3-0 victories over Worksop Town and Radcliffe, and a 1-0 win over Marine. Their only blemish was a 1-2 defeat at Buxton and a 1-1 draw at Chester. Across those five matches they scored 9 and conceded 3, averaging 1.8 and 0.6 per game. Season-wide, they average 2.00 scored and 0.55 conceded—a defensive record that stands out in the division. Their second-place position reflects genuine control and efficiency.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings between these sides are recorded.
Key factors
The fundamental imbalance is Hereford's defensive solidity against Morecambe's modest attacking threat. Hereford have conceded just 6 goals in 11 games; Morecambe average only 1.36 per game. Hereford's attacking output—2.00 per game—significantly outpaces Morecambe's defensive record of 1.00 conceded. Morecambe's recent wins came against lower-tier opposition and do not suggest they can trouble a well-drilled Hereford side. The visitors' consistency in both phases contrasts sharply with the hosts' volatility.
Prediction
The model favours an away win, and the underlying metrics support that lean. Hereford's attacking and defensive profiles are superior in every measurable dimension. Morecambe's home record does not inspire confidence—they have won just 4 of 11 games overall, and their recent form, while improved, has come against weaker opponents. The expected goals balance tilts toward the visitors, and a low-scoring away victory aligns with Hereford's pattern of controlled, efficient performances. The draw and home win remain live possibilities given the narrow confidence band, but the weight of evidence favours Hereford.
Hereford hold a narrow edge in this fixture. Their defensive discipline and superior attacking output make them slight favourites, though Morecambe's home advantage and recent upturn in form prevent this from being a clear-cut verdict. A low-scoring away win represents the likeliest outcome, but the market should respect the volatility inherent in mid-table National League football. Backing the visitors carries reasonable value, but the odds should reflect genuine uncertainty.
Infos du match
Tournois :
National League - North(National League North - 12)
Arbitre :
Aucune information
Stade
The Mazuma Stadium, Morecambe
Statistiques
Comparaison des cotes
Forme récente
Morecambe
W
W
W
L
L
Hereford
L
L
W
L
D
Blessures et suspensions
Compositions
Classement
| # | Équipe | MJ | V | N | D | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Shields | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 32 |
| 2 |  Hereford | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 |
| 3 |  Oxford City | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 |
| 4 |  Macclesfield | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
| 5 |  Hednesford Town | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 |
| 6 |  King's Lynn Town | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Buxton | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 |
| 8 |  Chester | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 26 |
| 9 |  Morecambe | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 10 |  Bedford Town | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| 11 |  AFC Telford United | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22 |
| 12 |  Spalding United | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 13 |  Chorley | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 14 |  Worksop Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 15 |  Hebburn Town | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 16 |  Merthyr Town | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 17 |  Brackley Town | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 18 |  Harborough Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 19 |  Scarborough Athletic | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
| 20 |  Marine | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 21 |  Radcliffe | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 22 |  Darlington 1883 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 |
| 23 |  Southport | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
| 24 |  Spennymoor Town | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 |
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