Match Finished
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 01-11-2026
Nov 123:10
2 : 1
Match Prediction
Expected score: Independiente Medellin 2-0 Alianza Valledupar
Independiente MedellinDrawAlianza Valledupar
Over 2.5 goalsYes (59%)
Independiente Medellin host Alianza Valledupar in Matchday 17 of the Clausura season at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. The hosts sit 11th with 26 points from 19 games, while Valledupar occupy 17th place with 17 points. This fixture pits a mid-table side with reasonable attacking output against a struggling visitor whose defensive record has been a persistent problem.
Team form
Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin have taken 7 goals from their last five outings (1.4 per game) while conceding 5 (1.0 per game). Recent results show two wins, two draws and one loss across that span. A 2-1 victory away at Liverpool Montevideo in the Libertadores was followed by a goalless draw at home in the return fixture, then a 1-1 draw against Deportivo Pereira in the league. The hosts have shown inconsistency but possess enough attacking threat to trouble most opponents.
Alianza Valledupar
Alianza Valledupar's record is markedly weaker. Over their last five matches they have scored only 5 goals (1.0 per game) against 10 conceded (2.0 per game). A 3-2 win at Deportivo Pereira in early April masks deeper problems: losses to America de Cali (0-3) and Atletico Nacional (0-3) expose defensive fragility. Two draws against Cucuta and Once Caldas represent their more stable moments. The visitors arrive in poor form and with a goal-scoring shortage that will make this away trip extremely difficult.
Head-to-head
Independiente Medellin dominate the head-to-head record. In their last five meetings, the hosts have won four times and drawn once. Medellin won 2-0 at home in both 2019 and 2018, and triumphed 3-1 and 4-2 in earlier encounters at this venue. The sole draw came in 2021 when the teams shared four goals. Valledupar have not beaten Medellin in this sequence and have won only once in their last 20 years of meetings.
Key factors
The gulf in defensive solidity is stark. Medellin have conceded 1.26 goals per game this season; Valledupar 1.42. More telling is recent form: Valledupar leak 2.0 per game over five matches. Medellin's midfield control and possession advantage at home should allow them to dictate tempo. Valledupar's attacking players have been starved of service and lack the creative spark to break down a compact defence. The hosts' 5-3-2 shape under Alejandro Restrepo provides defensive cover while maintaining attacking width. Valledupar's identical formation under Camilo Ayala offers less security given their personnel and current confidence.
Prediction
Medellin are the favourite. They hold a commanding home record against this opponent, possess superior league position and recent form, and face a side in genuine defensive distress. Valledupar have conceded three or more goals in two of their last five matches and score sparingly. The hosts should create the clearer chances and have the quality to convert them. Valledupar's attacking output has dried up, making a low-scoring home win the most probable outcome. Bookmakers price the home win at 1.49, reflecting the disparity in form and head-to-head history.
Independiente Medellin are favourites to win. The hosts' superior defensive record, home advantage, and Valledupar's recent vulnerability in both boxes point toward a comfortable evening for the hosts. Expect Medellin to control possession and create multiple opportunities against a visiting side that has struggled to score and defend consistently. A fairly open game is possible given both teams' attacking personnel, but the hosts should prevail.
Match info
Tournaments:
Primera A(Clausura - 17)
Referee:
Carlos Ortega, Colombia
Stadium
Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Independiente Medellin
L
L
L
L
W
Alianza Valledupar
L
W
W
D
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 |  Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 |  America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 |  Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 |  Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 |  Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 |  Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 |  Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 |  Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 |  Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 |  Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 |  Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 |  Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 |  Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 |  Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 |  Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 |  Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 |  Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 |  Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
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