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Flamengo vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 04-11-2026
Nov 422:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Flamengo 2-0 Gremio
FlamengoDrawGremio
Over 2.5 goalsYes (70%)
Flamengo host Gremio at the Maracanã in Serie A's 34th round, a fixture that pits the league's dominant force against a struggling visitor. The hosts sit first with 73 points from 22 wins, while Gremio languish in 15th on 37 points, having won just 9 of 33 matches. The gulf in quality and form creates a heavily skewed contest.
Team form
Flamengo
Flamengo have established themselves as Serie A's elite this season, averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game. Their recent record reads three wins and a draw across five outings, with 9 goals scored and 5 conceded. Most recently they beat Mirassol 2-0 at home on 2 September, demonstrating the control and efficiency that has underpinned their title challenge. Their attacking play is sharp and their defensive structure remains disciplined.
Gremio
Gremio's campaign has been a study in inconsistency and underperformance. They average just 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game across the season. Over their last five matches they have managed only 5 goals while conceding 5, a record of two draws and three defeats. The 0-0 draw at home to Remo on 5 April is their sole positive result in that span; losses to Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama, coupled with a 1-2 defeat to Chapecoense, reveal a side struggling to generate attacking threat or maintain defensive solidity.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record favours Gremio historically, though it offers limited insight into current form. Gremio won three of the last five meetings, including a 3-1 victory at home in 2017 and a 2-0 win in 2018. However, Flamengo's sole recent victory came away at Gremio in November 2019. The gap between the sides has widened considerably since those encounters, and the 2026 versions bear little resemblance to their predecessors.
Key factors
Flamengo's attacking depth and midfield control will be decisive. Samuel Lino and Juan Carrascal, both rated 8.3 in their last outing, provide creative thrust alongside Lucas Paqueta's energy. Pedro leads the line with support from the flanks. Gremio's defence, anchored by Gustavo Martins and Viery, faces an enormous task against a side that scores 2.06 per game. The visitors' inability to score—averaging 1.12 per game—makes it unlikely they will trouble Flamengo's goalkeeper Rossi significantly. Possession and territory should favour the hosts.
Prediction
The disparity in league position, goal difference, and recent form all point decisively toward a Flamengo victory. The hosts have conceded just 28 goals in 33 games while Gremio have leaked 44. Flamengo's attacking output and defensive discipline create a mismatch that Gremio lack the resources to overcome. The visitors' recent form—one draw and three losses in five—offers no evidence they can mount a credible challenge. Flamengo should dominate possession, create multiple clear chances, and convert at least two of them.
Flamengo are strong favourites to win this fixture. The hosts' superior quality, attacking prowess, and defensive organisation leave little room for doubt. Expect a comfortable home victory with Flamengo controlling the game from start to finish and converting their chances efficiently. A one-sided contest appears most likely.
Match info
Tournaments:
Serie A(Regular Season - 34)
Referee:
P. Zanovelli
Stadium
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Flamengo
W
W
D
W
D
Gremio
W
W
L
D
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 73 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 70 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 57 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 50 |
| 8 |  Santos | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 47 |
| 9 |  RB Bragantino | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 44 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 43 |
| 11 |  Coritiba | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 42 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 38 |
| 15 |  Gremio | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 |
| 16 |  Mirassol | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 36 |
| 18 |  Internacional | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 35 |
| 19 |  Remo | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 32 | 4 | 9 | 19 | 21 |
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Flamengo vs Gremio - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
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