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Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 05-11-2026
Nov 517:45
Match Prediction
Expected score: Atalanta 2-0 Kairat Almaty
AtalantaDrawKairat Almaty
Over 2.5 goalsYes (67%)
Atalanta host Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Europa Conference League League Stage at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo on 5 November. The Italian side are favourites at 1.16, with the Kazakhstani visitors priced at 14.21. This is a mismatch on paper, and the odds reflect a dominant home performance.
Team form
Atalanta
Atalanta have been inconsistent in Serie A, drawing their last two matches against Fiorentina (2-2) and Frosinone (4-4) before that. They did beat Venezia 3-1 at home earlier in October, but losses to AC Milan and Juventus show they struggle against top-tier opposition. Over their last five games they have scored 11 and conceded 12, averaging 2.2 goals for and 2.4 against. In the Conference League, they sit 15th with 3 points from two matches—one win and one loss. Their season average stands at 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded per game, suggesting defensive fragility even at home.
Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty's recent form data is dated to May, reflecting their domestic season in Kazakhstan. They won 1-0 at Irtysh and beat FC Astana 4-0 at home, but those results are from their spring campaign and offer limited insight into current condition. In the Conference League they have just 1 point from 2 matches with a 0-1-1 record. Crucially, they have conceded 6 goals while scoring only 2, averaging 3.00 conceded per game—a defensive record that will be exposed by Atalanta's attacking threat. The gap in European experience and quality is stark.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings between these sides.
Key factors
Atalanta's midfield creativity, anchored by players like Éderson and Elmas, should dominate possession and tempo. Kairat's defensive vulnerabilities—evident in their 6 goals conceded in just two Conference League matches—are a critical weakness. Atalanta's recent form in Serie A shows they can score freely at home; they put 4 past Frosinone and 3 past Venezia. Kairat have travelled from Kazakhstan to Italy with minimal European pedigree and will struggle to cope with the intensity and technical quality on display. The home advantage, combined with Atalanta's superior squad depth and tactical sophistication under Sarri, creates an environment where the hosts should control the game from start to finish.
Prediction
The bookmakers price this as a clear Atalanta win, and the underlying football supports that view. Atalanta are the stronger team in every department—defence, midfield, attack—and Kairat's leaky backline makes them vulnerable to conceding multiple goals. The hosts have shown they can score freely at home, and Kairat's defensive frailties offer little resistance. Atalanta should win comfortably and create a high volume of chances. The expected goal balance heavily favours the home side, and the predicted scoreline reflects a dominant performance.
Back Atalanta to win. They are strong favourites for good reason and should control this match from the opening whistle. Kairat's defensive record in Europe is alarming, and Atalanta's attacking quality at home gives them every reason to expect a convincing victory. The over 2.5 goals market is fairly likely given Atalanta's attacking prowess and Kairat's vulnerability; however, the both teams to score market is too close to call and should be avoided.
Match info
Tournaments:
UEFA Europa Conference League(League Stage - 3)
Referee:
No information
Stadium
New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Atalanta
L
D
D
L
L
Kairat Almaty
D
D
L
W
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 |  FC Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 |  Mjallby AIF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 |  Riga | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 22 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 25 |  FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 27 |  Pafos | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
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