Not Started
Chaves vs Penafiel Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 07-11-2026
Nov 714:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Chaves 1-2 Penafiel
ChavesDrawPenafiel
Over 2.5 goalsYes (60%)
Both teams to scoreYes (59%)
Chaves hosts Penafiel in Segunda Liga Round 10 at Estadio Municipal de Chaves. The hosts sit 15th with 8 points from nine games, while Penafiel occupy second place with 19 points. This fixture pits a struggling side against one of the division's strongest performers, and the gulf in current form is stark.
Team form
Chaves
Chaves have won only 2 of their last 9 matches and concede at an alarming rate—2.00 per game across the season and 1.8 per game over their last five outings. Their most recent fixture saw them lose 1-3 away at Benfica B, a result that typifies their defensive fragility. In their win over Vizela on 2026-10-23, they managed only 2 goals, and they have scored just 1 goal in three of their last four games. Coach Vitor Martins deployed a 4-3-3 formation in that Benfica B match, with 52% possession and 4 shots on goal—respectable metrics that yielded nothing. The attacking output remains a concern: 1.00 goal per game season-wide reflects an inability to convert chances or create them consistently.
Penafiel
Penafiel are the division's second-best side and have been ruthless in recent weeks. They won 1-0 at home against Feirense on 2026-11-02 and 4-1 away at Farense on 2026-10-24, demonstrating both defensive control and clinical finishing. Over their last five matches, they have scored 2.4 goals per game while conceding only 1.0. Their season average of 2.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded underlines their quality. José Manuel Aira's 3-4-3 setup has proven effective, with 54% possession and 5 shots on goal in their most recent outing. The visitors have lost only twice all season and have won 6 of 9 games.
Head-to-head
Penafiel hold a decisive recent edge. They won 1-0 away at Chaves on both 2026-02-06 and 2025-01-04, demonstrating a clear ability to neutralise the hosts in this exact fixture. Chaves' last two home victories over Penafiel came in 2021, suggesting a significant shift in the balance of power. The visitors arrive with a slight favourite's advantage in this head-to-head context.
Key factors
Penafiel's defensive solidity will be tested by a Chaves side desperate for goals, but the hosts' leaky backline—conceding 18 goals in 9 games—invites the visitors' attacking players to exploit space. Penafiel's ability to transition quickly and finish clinically has been their hallmark. Chaves' midfield will need to disrupt Penafiel's rhythm early; any failure to do so will likely result in the visitors controlling the tempo. The home crowd at Estadio Municipal de Chaves offers minimal advantage given the current form disparity.
Prediction
Penafiel are the narrow favourites. Their superior league position, recent form, and head-to-head record all point to an away victory. Chaves' defensive vulnerabilities and lack of attacking consistency make them vulnerable to a Penafiel side that scores regularly and concedes sparingly. The visitors should create the clearer chances and convert at least one of them. A competitive match is likely, but Penafiel's quality and consistency edge them ahead.
Penafiel to win. The visitors hold a narrow edge across all key metrics and should prove too clinical for a Chaves side struggling at both ends of the pitch. Expect a fairly open game with both sides likely to score, though Penafiel's efficiency should ultimately prevail.
Match info
Tournaments:
Segunda Liga(Regular Season - 10)
Referee:
No information
Stadium
Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Chaves
L
W
W
D
L
Penafiel
W
W
L
L
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting CP B | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 |  Penafiel | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 |  Benfica B | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 |  Farense | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 |  Academica | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Vizela | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 |  União de Leiria | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 |  AVS | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Portimonense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 |  Torreense | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Leixoes | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 |  Amarante | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 15 |  Chaves | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 |  FC Porto B | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Other Football matches
Chaves vs Penafiel - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Chaves vs Penafiel football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.