First Half
Estrela vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 08-11-2026
Nov 820:30
0 : 0
Match Prediction
Expected score: Estrela 0-3 Benfica
EstrelaDrawBenfica
Over 2.5 goalsYes (75%)
Benfica arrive at Amadora as overwhelming favourites in this Primeira Liga clash, with the visitors holding a commanding advantage across every measurable dimension. Estrela sit 12th with 10 points from 10 games, while Benfica occupy second place with 25 points and a goal difference of +19. The statistical gap between these sides is substantial, and the bookmakers have priced accordingly.
Team form
Estrela
Estrela's recent trajectory is deeply concerning. Over their last five matches they have scored just 5 goals while conceding 9, averaging 1.0 and 1.8 per game respectively. Three of those five fixtures ended in defeat, including a 0-2 loss to Casa Pia on 24 October and a 0-1 reverse at Arouca. Their sole victory in that run came against SC Braga on 10 September. For the season, they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. In their most recent outing, they managed 63% possession but generated only 1.72 expected goals with 6 shots on target—a display that underscores their struggle to convert opportunities into results.
Benfica
Benfica have been relentless. Their last five matches yielded 19 goals scored against just 2 conceded, an average of 3.8 and 0.4 per game. They won all five, including a 7-0 demolition of Casa Pia and a 4-0 victory at Moreirense. Season-wide, they score 2.70 per game and concede only 0.80—elite attacking output paired with a miserly defence. In their most recent fixture against GIL Vicente on 13 September, they posted 2.90 expected goals, 88% pass accuracy, and won 3-1. This is a side operating at the peak of their powers.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record is one-sided. In their last five meetings, Benfica have won every single encounter. Estrela have failed to score in three of those five fixtures. The most recent clash in August 2025 ended 0-1 away, and before that Benfica won 2-3 at home in February 2025. The pattern is unambiguous: Benfica dominate this fixture comprehensively.
Key factors
Benfica's defensive solidity is the foundation of their challenge. They have conceded just 8 goals in 10 league games, and Estrela's attacking output of 1.50 per game is unlikely to trouble them. Conversely, Benfica's attacking potency—2.70 goals per game—should find space against a Estrela defence that has conceded 1.90 per game. The visitors' midfield control, evidenced by their 64% possession and 88% pass accuracy in their last outing, should allow them to dictate tempo. Estrela will struggle to generate the volume of chances needed to trouble Benfica's goalkeeper.
Prediction
The data points overwhelmingly toward a Benfica victory. The visitors' superior form, defensive discipline, attacking efficiency, and perfect head-to-head record create a compelling case. Estrela's recent struggles—three defeats in five games with a goal difference of -4 over that span—leave them ill-equipped to compete. Benfica should control possession, create the clearer chances, and convert them with clinical efficiency. The expected goal balance heavily favours the away side.
Benfica are strong favourites and should win this match convincingly. The odds of 1.24 for an away victory represent genuine value given the gulf in quality and current form. Expect a dominant performance from the visitors, with goals likely to come in the second half once Benfica have established control. This is a fixture where the favourite's price reflects the true probability.
Match info
Tournaments:
Primeira Liga(Regular Season - 11)
Referee:
Antonio Nobre
Stadium
Estadio Jose Gomes, Amadora
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Estrela
L
L
W
L
L
Benfica
W
W
W
W
W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 |  SC Braga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 |  Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Nacional | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
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Estrela vs Benfica - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
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