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Plasencia vs Villafranca Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 08-11-2026
Nov 811:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Plasencia 1-1 Villafranca
PlasenciaDrawVillafranca
Plasencia host Villafranca in Tercera División RFEF Group 14 on 8 November 2026. The visitors hold a commanding head-to-head record, winning all four previous meetings, but current league form tells a more complicated story. Plasencia sit 15th with 8 points from 9 games; Villafranca are 12th with 10 points. Both teams have shown defensive fragility this season, and recent results suggest a tight, low-scoring affair is plausible.
Team form
Plasencia
Plasencia have drawn four of their last five matches, a run that masks inconsistency. They drew 0-0 away at Llerenense on 1 November, 1-1 at home to Moralo, and 0-0 away at Jerez. The sole win came against Atlético Pueblonuevo (4-3), an outlier in a pattern of defensive caution. Over these five games they scored 5 and conceded 4, averaging 1.0 goals for and 0.8 against. For the season, they average 0.78 scored and 1.33 conceded per game—a side struggling to create and vulnerable at the back.
Villafranca
Villafranca's recent form is volatile. They lost 0-1 at home to Castuera on 1 November and 1-2 away at Puebla Calzada, but sandwiched a 2-2 draw with CD Zafra and a 2-1 win over Gévora around those defeats. A 3-1 away victory at Santa Amalia on 9 October shows attacking capability when it clicks. Over five games they scored 8 and conceded 7, averaging 1.6 for and 1.4 against. Season-wide they average 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded—more attacking intent than Plasencia, but leakier defensively.
Head-to-head
Villafranca have won all four previous meetings. They beat Plasencia 1-0 at home in February 2023, then won 1-0 away in October 2022 and March 2022, and 2-0 at home in November 2021. Plasencia have not scored in any of those four fixtures. The historical edge is stark, yet head-to-head records in lower Spanish divisions can be misleading—squad turnover, managerial changes, and the small sample size mean past results carry limited predictive weight.
Key factors
Plasencia's defensive record (1.33 conceded per game) and attacking weakness (0.78 scored) create a team built to frustrate rather than impress. Villafranca's inconsistency—two losses in the last three games—suggests they lack the control to dominate a side that will sit deep. Both teams' recent form points toward a low-scoring, cagey contest. Villafranca's superior attacking average (1.33 vs 0.78) gives them a marginal edge in chance creation, but Plasencia's draw-heavy record indicates they will be hard to break down. The absence of injury or suspension data means both squads are assumed at full strength.
Prediction
The statistical model leans marginally toward a Plasencia home win, but the probabilities are tightly bunched: home 35.8%, draw 33.3%, away 30.9%. This is a coin-flip fixture. Expected goals favour neither side decisively (home 1.30, away 1.20). The top predicted scorelines cluster around 1-1, 0-0, and 2-1, reflecting the tight margins and defensive solidity both teams have shown. Both teams to score sits at 54.1%—finely balanced. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 45.7%, suggesting a fairly open game is unlikely.
This match is too close to separate. The home advantage and Plasencia's recent draw-heavy form give them a marginal lean, but Villafranca's superior attacking record and historical dominance in this fixture mean no outcome can be confidently favoured. Expect a low-scoring, tightly contested game where both defences will be tested but neither overwhelmed. The draw and under 2.5 goals are legitimate outcomes; the market reflects genuine uncertainty.
Match info
Tournaments:
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14(Group 14 - 10)
Referee:
No information
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Plasencia
D
D
D
W
D
Villafranca
L
L
D
W
W
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Azuaga | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 |  Llerenense | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 |  Moralo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 |  Castuera | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 |  Villanovense | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 |  Puebla Calzada | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 |  Cabeza Buey | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 |  CD Zafra | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 |  Quintana | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 |  Jerez | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 |  Gévora | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 |  Villafranca | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 13 |  Jaraíz | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 14 |  Santa Amalia | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 |  Plasencia | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 16 |  Montijo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 |  Atlético Pueblonuevo | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 |  Guadiana | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
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Plasencia vs Villafranca - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Plasencia vs Villafranca football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.