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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 10-10-2026
Oct 1014:15
Match Prediction
Expected score: Alaves 0-1 Atletico Madrid
AlavesDrawAtletico Madrid
Over 2.5 goalsYes (51%)
Both teams to scoreYes (53%)
In the La Liga Regular Season Round 8, Alaves prepares to host Atletico Madrid at Estadio de Mendizorroza on October 10, 2026. This match sees Alaves currently in sixth place, looking to capitalize on their home advantage against the second-placed Atletico, who are chasing top form.
Team form
Alaves
Alaves has had a mixed run in their last five matches, managing only one victory against Osasuna where they showcased their attacking potential with five goals. However, they struggled in their more recent fixtures, drawing against Athletic Club and suffering two defeats; consequently, their recent form averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. With a total of 11 goals scored this season, their lack of consistency will be a concern as they take on a strong adversary.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, has exhibited robust form with four wins in their last five matches, only dropping points in a loss to Athletic Club. An average of 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game demonstrates their effectiveness in attack and solid defensive structure. Their success includes notable victories against Valencia and Real Madrid, indicating they are in formidable shape heading into this encounter.
Head-to-head
Historically, Atrletico Madrid has dominated the recent head-to-head matchups with Alaves. In their last five meetings, Atletico has won four times including a notable 3-0 victory during the 2018 season andhas only once shared points when both teams played to a 1-1 draw back in August 2016. This pattern establishes a psychological advantage for Atletico heading into the match.
Key factors
A critical factor in this match will be Alaves's defensive setup, which utilizes a 5-3-2 formation that prioritizes solidity at the back. However, their ability to maintain ball possession has been a struggle, evidenced by a meager 31% possession in their last fixture. Conversely, Atletico Madrid operates under a 4-4-2 formation, focusing on both solid defence coupled with incisive attacking transitions. They have excelled in set-pieces and counterattacks, creating scoring opportunities efficiently.
Prediction
Taking into account the form of both teams, head-to-head dominance, and statistical data, Atletico comes into this match as firm favorites. With an expected goals tally of 1.66, their offensive capabilities suggest a higher chance of scoring compared to Alaves's expected goals of 1.06. Additionally, factors such as away performance and Alaves's struggles to find the back of the net against strong sides contribute to the expectations of Atletico securing a victory.
Considering the above analysis and the model's prediction, it is projected that Atletico Madrid will win against Alaves.
Match info
Tournaments:
La Liga(Regular Season - 8)
Referee:
No information
Stadium
Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Alaves
D
L
L
W
W
Atletico Madrid
W
W
W
L
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
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Alaves vs Atletico Madrid - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Alaves vs Atletico Madrid football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.