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Chorley vs Buxton Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 14-11-2026
Nov 1415:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Chorley 2-1 Buxton
ChorleyDrawBuxton
Over 2.5 goalsYes (65%)
Both teams to scoreYes (63%)
Chorley host Buxton in the FA Trophy Round of 128 at Victory Park on 14 November. This is a matchup between two National League North sides with contrasting recent trajectories. Chorley come in as slight favourites, though both teams have shown enough defensive vulnerability to suggest goals could flow in either direction.
Team form
Chorley
Chorley have picked up 8 goals across their last five outings while conceding 6, averaging 1.6 per game offensively and 1.2 defensively. They drew 2-2 with Brackley Town and 1-1 with Merthyr Town in late August, but showed more cutting edge in wins over Scarborough Athletic (2-1) and Marine (2-0). A 1-2 loss to South Shields suggests inconsistency, but the underlying pattern is one of a side capable of scoring regularly at this level.
Buxton
Buxton's recent record is more troubling. They have shipped 11 goals in five games—a concerning 2.2 per match—while scoring only 7. The 0-4 hammering at Morecambe stands out as particularly damaging, though they did beat Merthyr Town 2-1 and Oxford City 3-2 in between. Defeats to Hebburn Town (1-2) and Bedford Town (1-2) suggest defensive frailty is a recurring problem. Their attacking output of 1.4 per game is also below Chorley's rate.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record favours Buxton heavily. They have won three of the last five meetings, all at home: 3-2 in October 2025, 1-0 in April 2025, and 3-1 in April 2024. Chorley drew 2-2 with them in February 2023 and January 2023, showing they can compete but have rarely won this fixture. That historical edge is worth noting, though home advantage now swings to Chorley.
Key factors
Chorley's home ground and superior defensive record (1.2 goals conceded per game versus Buxton's 2.2) give them an edge. Buxton's leaky backline has been exposed repeatedly, and Chorley's attacking output should find opportunities. However, Buxton have shown they can score—their wins over Oxford City and Merthyr Town prove they carry a threat. The FA Trophy format often produces open, attacking football, and both sides' recent form suggests neither will sit deep. Chorley's consistency over the last month outweighs Buxton's volatility.
Prediction
Chorley are the favourite here. They average more goals per game, concede fewer, and hold home advantage. Buxton's defensive fragility—particularly the 0-4 loss to Morecambe—suggests they will struggle to contain Chorley's attacking play. That said, Buxton have shown enough offensive capability in recent wins to trouble the home side. The balance of play should favour the hosts, but Buxton's unpredictability and their historical success in this fixture means this is not a one-sided affair.
Chorley are the more likely winner in a match that looks set to be fairly open. Both sides have conceded regularly, and the attacking quality on display suggests goals are probable. Back Chorley to win, but factor in Buxton's ability to score and their proven pedigree in this fixture. A competitive encounter rather than a foregone conclusion.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Chorley
L
L
W
L
L
Buxton
D
W
W
W
D
Injuries & Suspensions
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Chorley vs Buxton - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Chorley vs Buxton football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
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