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Expected score: Weston-super-Mare 1-0 Farnborough
Weston-super-Mare host Farnborough in the FA Trophy Round of 128 on 14 November 2026. Both sides arrive from the National League South, where they have shown comparable attacking output but defensive vulnerability. This is a cup tie where the margin between the teams is narrow, and the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.
Team form
Weston-super-Mare
Weston-super-Mare have scored 8 goals in their last five outings while conceding 4, averaging 1.6 per game and 0.8 against. They won their last two league games — 3-0 at home to Hampton & Richmond and 3-0 to Chesham United — but that run was broken by a 2-3 home defeat to Dover. A goalless draw at Torquay suggests inconsistency in attack despite the recent wins. They are capable of sharp finishing at home but have shown they can be caught out defensively.
Farnborough
Farnborough have posted 7 goals across five matches while conceding 4, a rate of 1.4 and 0.8 per game. They won twice — 1-0 at home to Chesham and 2-1 away at Maidstone — but also lost 0-2 at home to Hemel Hempstead and drew 1-1 away at Maidenhead. Their form is patchy; they have not strung together consecutive victories. The defensive record is solid in isolation, but they have been breached regularly enough to suggest they are not watertight on the road.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record favours Weston-super-Mare. In their last five meetings, Weston-super-Mare have won twice — 3-1 away in August 2025 and 1-0 away in September 2023 — and drawn once. Farnborough have won twice at home (3-0 in August 2023 and 2-1 in March 2025) but have not won away in this sequence. Weston-super-Mare's away record against this opponent is strong, and at home they will back themselves to continue that trend.
Key factors
Cup football tends to tighten matches, and both sides' recent form suggests neither will dominate. Weston-super-Mare's home advantage is real — they have won their last two league games at this ground — but Farnborough are not without threat. The defensive records are nearly identical, and both teams have shown they can score. The expected goal balance slightly favours the hosts, but not decisively. Set-piece play and individual moments are likely to decide this rather than sustained pressure from either side.
Prediction
Weston-super-Mare edge this as the primary pick, backed by their superior head-to-head record, home form in recent weeks, and the marginal expected goals advantage. However, the confidence is limited — the gap between the three outcomes is small. Farnborough are capable of getting a result here, and a draw remains a realistic outcome. The match looks tight and finely balanced, with goals likely to be at a premium.
Back Weston-super-Mare to win, but do so with caution. The hosts have the edge in recent form and history, but this is not a strong conviction play. The draw is a legitimate alternative, and the match has the hallmarks of a low-scoring affair. For the betting community, this is a fixture where value may lie in the under 2.5 goals market rather than committing heavily to either side.
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Weston-super-Mare vs Farnborough - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
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