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Compostela vs Ourense CF Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 15-11-2026
Nov 1516:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Compostela 1-0 Ourense CF
CompostelaDrawOurense CF
Over 2.5 goalsNo (40%)
Compostela hosts Ourense CF in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on 15 November, a matchup between fifth-placed hosts and tenth-placed visitors. Compostela hold a 5-point advantage and have shown sharper form in recent weeks, but Ourense's defensive fragility and inconsistency make this far from a foregone conclusion in a division where results remain volatile.
Team form
Compostela
Compostela have won 4 of their last 5 league games, scoring 10 goals and conceding only 3 over that span. The 2-1 victory at Arosa on 8 November extended a run that includes a 4-1 home demolition of Atlético Astorga and a 3-1 away win at Llanera. Only a goalless draw at home to Basconia interrupted the sequence. Season-wide, they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game, positioning them as the division's more prolific and stable attacking unit. Their defensive record remains respectable, though not exceptional.
Ourense CF
Ourense CF have won only 1 of their last 5 matches, a 3-0 home victory over Gimnástica Torrelavega. Three defeats in that period—including a 3-0 loss at home to Portugalete last time out—expose serious structural problems. They have conceded 9 goals in five games (1.8 per match) and scored just 4 (0.8 per match). Season averages of 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game underline a side struggling to create and leaking chances consistently. Away form is likely to be worse given the home-field struggles.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record offers little clarity. Ourense won 2-0 at home in February 2024, but Compostela won 2-1 at home in February 2023. Three of the five meetings ended level, including a 2-2 draw in January 2020. Historical precedent suggests neither side dominates the fixture, though Compostela's current form and home advantage carry weight.
Key factors
Compostela's attacking tempo and defensive solidity stand in sharp contrast to Ourense's leaky backline and misfiring attack. The hosts have scored in 4 of 5 recent games and conceded in only 2; Ourense have conceded in all 5. Possession and passing metrics are not available, but the goal tallies tell a story: Compostela are creating and finishing chances; Ourense are vulnerable to both. Home advantage at a side in fifth place facing a tenth-placed visitor typically matters in this division, though the gap of 5 points is not insurmountable. Ourense's occasional capacity to score—the 3-0 win and the 1-1 draw show they are not toothless—means a shutout is not guaranteed.
Prediction
The model favours a Compostela home win, reflecting their superior form, defensive record, and the bookmaker consensus. However, confidence sits at the slight-edge threshold; the most likely outcome is under 45%, signalling a tight contest. Ourense's defensive leakiness and recent losses suggest they will struggle to contain Compostela's attack, but their occasional attacking spark and the unpredictability of Segunda División football prevent this from being a clear-cut affair. The predicted score of 1-0 reflects a narrow home victory rather than a rout. Over 2.5 goals is not favoured by the model, and both teams to score is finely balanced—neither is a strong play.
Back Compostela to win, but do so with caution. The hosts hold a genuine edge on form and structure, yet Ourense remain capable of frustrating and the margin is thin. This is a game where the home side's advantage is real but modest. For bettinglike.top readers seeking value, the home win offers the most defensible case, though the odds reflect a contest with genuine uncertainty baked in.
Match info
Tournaments:
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1(Group 1 - 11)
Referee:
No information
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Compostela
W
D
W
W
W
Ourense CF
L
D
W
L
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sestao River | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 |  Eibar II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alavés II | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 |  Portugalete | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 |  Bergantiños | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 |  Compostela | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Amorebieta | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Real Oviedo II | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Basconia | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ourense CF | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Gernika | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 |  Llanera | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 14 |  Coruxo | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 15 |  Arosa | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 16 |  Atlético Astorga | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 17 |  Marino de Luanco | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 |
| 18 |  Gimnástica Torrelavega | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
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Compostela vs Ourense CF - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Compostela vs Ourense CF football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
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