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Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 17-10-2026
Oct 1713:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Werder Bremen 2-1 SC Paderborn 07
Werder BremenDrawSC Paderborn 07
Over 2.5 goalsYes (73%)
Both teams to scoreYes (63%)
Werder Bremen host SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga matchday 6, with the hosts looking to consolidate their place in the upper half. Bremen sit seventh on 8 points after five games, while Paderborn languish in 15th with just 4 points from a difficult start. The visitors arrive at Weserstadion having won only once all season and conceding at an alarming rate. Bremen's recent form suggests they should dominate this fixture, though Paderborn's occasional spark—most recently a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim—means complacency could prove costly.
Team form
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen have been inconsistent but trending upward. They won 3-2 against Augsburg on matchday 5, scored 3 against Leipzig, and drew 1-1 at Köln, but suffered a heavy 1-4 defeat at Freiburg. Over their last five games they've scored 11 and conceded 8, averaging 2.2 goals for and 1.6 against. Their season record of 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded per game masks a side capable of both attacking flair and defensive fragility. The 3-4-3 formation under Thioune encourages width and pressing; Grüll and Füllkrug have shown attacking threat, with Füllkrug rated 8.2 in his last outing.
SC Paderborn 07
Paderborn's campaign has been a struggle. One win in five matches, three defeats, and a blank draw at Mainz tell the story of a side struggling to create and leaking goals consistently. They've managed just 3 goals across their last five games while conceding 7—a 0.6 to 1.4 ratio that screams defensive vulnerability. Their sole victory came against Hoffenheim, but losses to Dortmund, Stuttgart, and Freiburg suggest they lack the quality to compete at this level. The 3-5-2 formation offers defensive cover, yet they managed only 6 shots on goal and 1.91 xG against Stuttgart, hardly the output of a team ready to trouble Bremen.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record is mixed but tilted toward Bremen at home. They won 4-0 at Weserstadion in 2014 and drew 2-2 there in August this year. Paderborn's away victories came in 2021 when they won 4-1 and in 2019 when they won 1-0, but those were in different eras of both clubs' development. The August draw is the most recent meeting, suggesting both sides can score, though Bremen's home record in this fixture remains stronger.
Key factors
Bremen's possession dominance and shot volume should overwhelm Paderborn's limited attacking resources. Paderborn's defensive record—1.40 goals conceded per game—offers little resistance to Bremen's creative midfield and forward line. Conversely, Paderborn's 0.60 goals per game average means they rarely punish opponents; Bremen's back line, while occasionally shaky, should manage the threat. The bookmakers price a home win at 1.78 and over 2.5 goals at 1.52, reflecting confidence in both a Bremen victory and an open game. Set pieces and transitions could offer Paderborn their best chances, but they lack the clinical finishing to capitalize.
Prediction
Bremen are heavy favourites and deserve to be. They've won two of their last three, scored freely, and face a Paderborn side that has managed only three goals in five games. The visitors' defensive frailty—conceding 1.4 per game—plays directly into Bremen's hands, particularly with Füllkrug and Grüll in form. Paderborn's sole strength is defensive organization in a 3-5-2, but that hasn't stopped them shipping goals. While Paderborn's August draw at Weserstadion shows they can frustrate Bremen temporarily, their recent form suggests a repeat is unlikely. A home win is the clear expectation, with both sides likely to score given Bremen's attacking intent and Paderborn's defensive struggles.
Back Werder Bremen to win. They should control possession, create the clearer chances, and punish a Paderborn side that looks short on confidence and goals. Expect a fairly open contest—Paderborn will have moments—but Bremen's quality and home advantage should prove decisive. A 2-1 scoreline feels most likely, though a more comfortable margin is entirely plausible.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Werder Bremen
D
L
W
D
W
SC Paderborn 07
L
W
W
L
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 |  SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 |  1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 |  Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 |  FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
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Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.