Second Half
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 18-10-2026
Oct 1812:30
2 : 1
Match Prediction
Expected score: Cambuur 0-2 AZ Alkmaar
CambuurDrawAZ Alkmaar
Over 2.5 goalsYes (70%)
Cambuur host AZ Alkmaar at the Kooi Stadion in Leeuwarden on Matchday 9 of the Eredivisie season. The visitors arrive as heavy favourites, sitting third in the table with 19 points from eight games, while the hosts occupy 12th with 8 points. This fixture pits a struggling mid-table side against one of the division's in-form contenders, and the odds reflect a stark gulf in quality.
Team form
Cambuur
Cambuur have shown mixed form in their last five outings, winning 1-0 away at PEC Zwolle most recently but also suffering a heavy 1-4 defeat to Twente in August. They scored 8 goals and conceded 7 across those five matches, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Their season average of 1.38 goals scored and 2.38 conceded underscores a side that struggles defensively. In their last match, they held 54% possession against PEC Zwolle but generated just 0.88 expected goals, suggesting limited attacking threat despite the win.
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar have been far more consistent, winning four of their last five league games. They lost 0-2 away at Feyenoord most recently, but that reversal came after victories over Telstar, Heerenveen and GO Ahead Eagles. Across their last five matches, they scored 10 goals and conceded 7, averaging 2.0 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Their season average of 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded reflects a team that both attacks effectively and defends solidly. In their last outing, they managed 1.04 expected goals from 2 shots on goal, showing efficiency despite limited possession at 57%.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record strongly favours AZ Alkmaar. In their last five meetings, AZ have won three times and drawn twice, while Cambuur have not beaten them in this sequence. AZ won 1-0 away in 2022, 3-1 away in 2021, and 2-0 away in 2014. The two draws came in 2015 and 2014. AZ's away record against Cambuur is particularly commanding, and nothing in recent history suggests the hosts can overturn that trend.
Key factors
The defensive fragility of Cambuur is the critical weakness here. Conceding 2.38 goals per game on average, they face an AZ attack averaging 2.25 goals per game—a mismatch that favours the visitors decisively. AZ's ability to control possession and create chances efficiently, evidenced by their superior expected goals output, suggests they will dictate the tempo. Cambuur's midfield will need to disrupt AZ's rhythm early, but their recent form offers little confidence. The bookmakers price over 2.5 goals at 1.34 and both teams to score at 1.48, reflecting expectations of an open game, though the gap in quality points to a more one-sided affair.
Prediction
AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites on the data. They hold a 19-point advantage in the standings, possess a superior defensive record, and have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings. Cambuur's leaky defence and inconsistent attacking output leave them vulnerable to a side that scores 2.25 goals per game on average. The visitors' away form against Cambuur is particularly strong, and their recent loss to Feyenoord should not obscure their overall trajectory. The model expects AZ to create significantly more chances and convert them at a higher rate than the hosts can manage.
AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites to win this match. The visitors' superior quality, defensive solidity and attacking efficiency should prove decisive against a Cambuur side that has struggled to keep clean sheets this season. While Cambuur showed resilience in their last outing, they face a far sterner test here. Back AZ Alkmaar to secure three points.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Cambuur
W
D
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L
AZ Alkmaar
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L
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D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 13 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
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Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.