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Burnley vs Derby Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 19-09-2026
Sep 1914:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Burnley 1-0 Derby
BurnleyDrawDerby
Over 2.5 goalsYes (51%)
Both teams to scoreYes (52%)
Burnley will face Derby in the Championship — Regular Season - 8 at Turf Moor, seeking to earn vital points in a challenging campaign. Burnley currently occupies the bottom position in the league, while Derby is slightly ahead in 22nd place. Both teams have struggled to find form early in the season, making this matchup crucial for their aspirations.
Team form
Burnley
Burnley's recent form has been concerning, as they remain without a victory from seven matches, registering three draws and four losses. Most recently, they drew 1-1 against Wrexham, following a string of matches where they managed to score only five goals while conceding 11. This has led to an alarming goal differential of -8. Their attacking prospects seem diminished, averaging only around 1.0 goals scored per game, combined with the second-highest goals conceded in the league at 2.29 per game.
Derby
Similarly, Derby has also struggled this season, collecting just four points from seven outings, with one win being recorded against Portsmouth in their last five matches. The loss of consistency has been evident, as they suffered three consecutive defeats leading up to this fixture. In total, Derby has seen an average of 0.86 goals scored and 1.86 conceded, indicating similar vulnerabilities in their defense. Their recent match saw them lose 2-1 to Birmingham, illustrating their challenges in both creativity and defensive solidity.
Head-to-head
Examining the recent head-to-head encounters, Burnley has had the upper hand traditionally over Derby, as seen in their last five matches which highlighted a strong defensive battle. The most recent meeting in December 2024 ended goalless, while a significant 4-1 win by Burnley came back in early 2016. However, the trend shows that each team's defensive solidity will be put to the test in this important encounter.
Key factors
The formation utilized by both teams — 4-2-3-1 — echoes tactical discipline but can become a liability if midfield operations fail to generate offensive opportunities. Burnley's possession stats remain slightly below average at 47%, while Derby has fared notably better with 59%. The ability to manage possession effectively could dictate the control of this fixture, particularly in a situation where both teams appear conservative in their approach. The effectiveness of Burnley’s wingers and midfield creativity through players like L. Ramazani and this team’s goalkeeper, M. Weiss, will be essential for them securing a win. Meanwhile, Derby will rely on transformation from their midfield while exposed to counterplays, making them vulnerable.
Prediction
Expectations lean towards a home win for Burnley due to Derby's inconsistent form combined with Burnley's slight advantage playing at their home ground. Despite Burnley's poor standing, a return to form is anticipated in this fixture. Given their propensity to score and the way Derby has conceded goals, it appears likely that the hosts will find a way through a Derby defense that has struggled significantly.
In conclusion, while both teams arrive under pressure to perform, the prediction leans towards Burnley being able to capitalize on their home advantage to secure a win against Derby in Turf Moor. Their tactical setup may yield the necessary result in a matchup that both clubs badly need to energize their seasons.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Burnley
L
D
L
D
L
Derby
L
L
L
W
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 |  West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 |  QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 |  Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 |  Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 |  Lincoln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 12 |  Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 13 |  Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 16 |  Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 17 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 19 |  Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 20 |  Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 22 |  Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 23 |  Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
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Burnley vs Derby - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Burnley vs Derby football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.