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Vitória SC vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 23-10-2026
Oct 2319:45
Match Prediction
Expected score: Vitória SC 1-0 Maritimo
Vitória SCDrawMaritimo
Over 2.5 goalsNo (38%)
Both teams to scoreNo (43%)
Vitória SC hosts Maritimo in Primeira Liga Round 9, a clash between two struggling sides battling to climb out of the lower reaches of the table. Vitória sit 15th with just 1 win from 8 games, while Maritimo occupy 11th with 2 wins. Both teams arrive in poor form and have conceded heavily in recent weeks, setting up a fixture where defensive frailty could prove costly.
Team form
Vitória SC
Vitória's season has been a struggle. They lost 0-2 away at Benfica on 11 October, extending their run to just 1 win in 8 league matches. Over their last five outings they have scored only 2 goals while conceding 6, averaging 0.4 per game in attack and 1.2 in defence. The 38% possession they managed against Benfica reflects their difficulty controlling matches, though they did generate some chances with 0.49 expected goals. At home they have drawn twice this season but won only once, leaving them vulnerable to a visiting side willing to be direct.
Maritimo
Maritimo's recent record is equally concerning. They lost 1-2 at home to Porto on 10 October and have won just twice all season. Their last five games tell a damaging story: 4 goals scored, 11 conceded (0.8 and 2.2 per game). They shipped 3 goals at Benfica and 3 at Moreirense, suggesting their defence is fragile under pressure. Their 42% possession against Porto came with just 0.27 expected goals, indicating they struggle to create clear-cut opportunities. Away from home, Maritimo have lost four of their last five matches, a record that offers little encouragement.
Head-to-head
The historical head-to-head favours Vitória. In their last five meetings, Vitória have won three times at home (1-0 in 2019, 2-1 in 2017, 1-0 in 2015) and drawn once, with Maritimo's only victory coming away in 2015. Vitória's home record in this fixture is strong, though both sides' current defensive vulnerabilities mean recent history may count for less than usual.
Key factors
Vitória's home advantage is significant given Maritimo's poor away form, but neither defence inspires confidence. Vitória have conceded 10 goals in 8 games (1.25 per game on average), while Maritimo's 14 conceded in 8 (1.75 per game) is worse. Both teams are low-scoring this season—Vitória average 0.63 goals per game, Maritimo 1.13—so a low-scoring contest is plausible. The bookmakers price over 2.5 goals at even money, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether either side can break through. Maritimo's slight offensive edge (1.13 vs 0.63 goals per game) is offset by their travel record and Vitória's home strength.
Prediction
Vitória hold a slight favourite's edge at home. They have won more often in this fixture, play in front of their own supporters, and face an away side in poor form. Maritimo's defensive record is worse and their recent away results are dire. However, neither team is convincing, and Maritimo do score more regularly than Vitória, keeping the outcome genuinely competitive. A low-scoring home win appears the most likely path, though draws and narrow away victories remain live possibilities given both sides' struggles.
Vitória are marginally more likely to take the points, but this is a narrow-margin fixture between two inconsistent teams. Expect a tight, low-scoring affair where defensive solidity will be at a premium and chances may be few.
Match info
Tournaments:
Primeira Liga(Regular Season - 9)
Referee:
No information
Stadium
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Vitória SC
W
L
W
D
L
Maritimo
W
L
D
L
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 15 |  Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
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Vitória SC vs Maritimo - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
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