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FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 24-10-2026
Oct 2413:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05DrawWerder Bremen
Over 2.5 goalsYes (76%)
Both teams to scoreYes (72%)
FSV Mainz 05 host Werder Bremen in Bundesliga Round 7 at the Mewa Arena on 24 October. Mainz sit fifth with 10 points from six games, while Bremen occupy eighth place with 9 points. The hosts arrive as favourites in this mid-table clash.
Team form
FSV Mainz 05
Mainz have shown attacking intent in recent weeks. They won 1-0 away at Schalke on 17 October, securing a clean sheet despite 54% possession and 1.53 expected goals. Before that came a high-scoring 3-4 home defeat to Leverkusen on 10 October. Over their last five matches, Mainz have scored 14 goals and conceded 10, averaging 2.8 per game offensively and 2.0 defensively. Their season record reads 14 goals for and 10 against across six games, a strong attacking output balanced by defensive vulnerability.
Werder Bremen
Bremen's form is more measured. They won 3-2 at home against Augsburg on 19 September, generating 2.78 expected goals and 11 shots on goal with 88% pass accuracy. Their recent five-game sample shows 11 goals scored and 8 conceded (2.2 and 1.6 per game). Across the season, they have matched their goal tally with goals conceded at 12 each, suggesting a side finding equilibrium but not yet breaking clear. A draw with Köln and losses to Freiburg show inconsistency away from home.
Head-to-head
The historical record between these sides offers little clarity. Their last five meetings span from 2015 to 2019 and include three draws and one win each. Bremen won 3-1 at home in 2019, but Mainz took a 2-1 away victory in 2016. The fixture has rarely produced decisive results, with three of five meetings ending level.
Key factors
Mainz's attacking prowess—averaging 2.33 goals per game this season—should test a Bremen defence that has conceded 12 in six outings. Bremen's midfield control, evident in their 66% possession and 88% pass accuracy in their last outing, could frustrate Mainz's direct approach. Coach Ulrich Fischer's 3-5-2 formation gives Mainz width and attacking support, while Daniel Thioune's 3-4-3 provides Bremen defensive solidity. The bookmakers price both teams to score at 1.53, reflecting the attacking nature of both sides and the likelihood of an open contest.
Prediction
Mainz are favoured to win. They hold the league position advantage, superior recent scoring output, and home advantage at the Mewa Arena. Their season average of 2.33 goals scored outpaces Bremen's 2.00, while their defensive record (1.67 conceded per game) is tighter than Bremen's (2.00). The odds reflect this: home win at 1.68 versus 4.51 for an away victory. Bremen remain competitive—their draw rate (three in six) and midfield quality keep them in contention—but Mainz's form and home status make them the more likely winners.
Expect a fairly open match with both sides capable of scoring. Mainz should create the clearer chances and edge this contest, though Bremen's defensive organisation and possession threat mean a single-goal margin is realistic. The over 2.5 goals market at 1.52 reflects the attacking potential on display.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05
W
L
W
W
L
Werder Bremen
D
D
L
W
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 |  SV Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 |  RB Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 |  Hamburger SV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 |  VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 15 |  FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 16 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
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FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.