Not Started
Coritiba vs Gremio Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 26-10-2026
Oct 2622:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Coritiba 2-1 Gremio
CoritibaDrawGremio
Over 2.5 goalsYes (56%)
Both teams to scoreYes (59%)
Coritiba hosts Gremio at Estádio Couto Pereira in Serie A Round 32, a fixture that pits a mid-table side against one struggling near the relegation zone. The hosts occupy 12th place with 39 points, while Gremio sits 18th with 31 points—a 8-point gap that reflects the difference in their recent trajectories. This is a match where the home team's superior league position and form advantage should translate into a narrow but genuine edge.
Team form
Coritiba
Coritiba have stabilised their season with mixed but resilient recent results. Over their last five games, they scored 4 and conceded 4, averaging 0.8 goals in each direction. Their most recent outing saw them draw 1-1 at home against Fluminense, following another 1-1 draw with Vasco da Gama. Before that, they suffered a 0-2 away defeat to Atletico Paranaense, but recovered with consecutive wins—1-0 at Mirassol and 1-0 at home to Remo. The pattern shows a team capable of grinding results without always playing expansive football.
Gremio
Gremio's form has been considerably weaker. In their last five matches, they scored 5 and conceded 5 (1.0 per game each), but the results tell a troubling story: just one win in five, with two defeats and two draws. Most recently they drew 0-0 at home against Remo—a blank that underscores their attacking struggles. Before that came a 1-2 home loss to Palmeiras and a 1-2 away defeat to Vasco da Gama. Their sole bright spot was a 2-0 home win over Vitoria on 19 March. The away record looks particularly vulnerable.
Head-to-head
Historical head-to-head records between these sides span back to 2013, with Coritiba holding a slight edge in recent encounters. Gremio won twice at home in 2016 and 2017 (both 2-0), but Coritiba claimed two away victories—3-2 in 2014 and 1-0 in 2013—plus a 0-0 draw in 2015. While Gremio's home record against this opponent looks strong, Coritiba's ability to win on the road in this fixture offers encouragement for the hosts, who will play in front of their own supporters.
Key factors
Coritiba's home advantage is significant; they average 1.23 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game across the season, while Gremio's away form is a major concern given their defensive fragility (1.42 conceded per game) and blunt attack (1.10 scored). Gremio will be without Walter Kannemann (red card suspension) and have J. Nardoni unavailable, weakening their defensive options. Coritiba lose Lucas Ronier to knee injury and Thiago Santos to suspension, but retain their core midfield. The bookmakers price both teams to score at 1.71, reflecting the likelihood of an open contest.
Prediction
Coritiba hold a narrow edge as slight favourites. The data-driven case rests on three pillars: superior league position and points tally, better recent form (fewer defeats, more wins), and home advantage at a ground where they have shown resilience. Gremio's defensive vulnerabilities away from home and their current struggle to create chances make them vulnerable to a team that, while not prolific, has proven capable of converting limited opportunities. The balance of expected output favours the hosts, though Gremio retain enough quality to trouble them—hence the narrow margin rather than a commanding prediction.
Back Coritiba as a slight favourite to win. The home side's league position, recent stability, and Gremio's away form weakness combine to make the hosts marginally more likely to take three points. Expect a competitive match with chances at both ends; both teams scoring at 1.71 represents fair value given the attacking potential on display. A 2-1 home win reflects the most probable outcome, though draws and narrow away victories remain credible outcomes in what should be a fairly open game.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Coritiba
L
D
L
L
D
Gremio
L
D
D
D
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 67 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 66 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 38 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 30 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 18 |
Other Football matches
Coritiba vs Gremio - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Coritiba vs Gremio football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.