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Derby vs Swansea Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 29-08-2026
Aug 2911:30
Match Prediction
Expected score: Derby 0-1 Swansea
DerbyDrawSwansea
Over 2.5 goalsNo (41%)
Both teams to scoreNo (47%)
As Derby hosts Swansea at Pride Park on August 29, 2026, both teams are keen to secure crucial points in the Championship. Derby has made a modest start to the season, while Swansea is looking to climb further up the standings after a decent beginning.
Team form
Derby
Derby's recent performances highlight struggles in finding victory, having achieved one draw and one loss in their opening two matches, currently placing them at #16 in the table. With an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded, the team appears to be experiencing defensive vulnerabilities while lacking efficiency in attack. Their latest outing ended in a 2-2 draw against Cardiff, showcasing their potential to score but also revealing issues in maintaining leads defensively.
Swansea
Conversely, Swansea sits higher up the table at #9, buoyed by recent results that reflect improved form. After one victory and one draw in their first two matches, they have averaged 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game. The team's last performance resulted in a goalless stalemate against Sheffield United, a game where they struggled to convert possession into significant attacking threats, registering only a minimal expected goals (xG) figure of 0.33.
Head-to-head
Historically, there are no recent encounters between Derby and Swansea in the context of this competition. This lack of direct competition further subjects this fixture to the unpredictable nature typical of early season matchups.
Key factors
A factor to consider is Derby's home advantage, where they will look to leverage familiar conditions at Pride Park. Coach John Eustace may focus on solidifying defensive performance and increasing offensive contributions to complement their slightly higher average expected goals at home (1.12). On the other hand, Swansea's coach Vitor Emanuel Soares Matos might strive to capitalize on try-expect contested possession stats and exploit weaknesses in Derby’s defense. The passing accuracy of both teams suggests a tactical patience is likely, especially with Swansea's higher possession rate of 67%, which could determine match control.
Prediction
Based on current statistical outputs indicating goals likely skewing towards the away side, Swansea opens as a slight favorite without overshadowing Derby’s potential capabilities at home. The comparison of recent defensive records and xG indicates Swansea may secure an away win with narrow margins, but the unpredictable nature of Championship matches warrants caution. The absence of direct match history also adds a layer of uncertainty regarding tactical setups, further supporting a very close contest over the course of the game.
Given all considerations, the prediction leans towards an away victory for Swansea, propelled by their current standing and recent form.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Derby
D
L
L
D
L
Swansea
D
W
L
W
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 |  West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 |  QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 |  Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 |  Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 |  Bolton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 |  Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 |  Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 |  Sheffield Utd | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 |  Derby | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 17 |  West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 |  Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 19 |  Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 20 |  Preston | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 |  Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 |  Lincoln | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 |  Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 |  Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
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Derby vs Swansea - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Derby vs Swansea football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.