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Burnley vs Portsmouth Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 31-10-2026
Oct 3115:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Burnley 1-1 Portsmouth
BurnleyDrawPortsmouth
Over 2.5 goalsYes (59%)
Both teams to scoreYes (61%)
Burnley host Portsmouth at Turf Moor in a Championship clash between two sides heading in opposite directions. The hosts sit 22nd with just one win from 12 games, while Portsmouth occupy 11th with a more solid return of five victories. This is a match where recent form tells a stark story, yet the underlying metrics suggest a far tighter contest than the league table implies.
Team form
Burnley
Burnley's season has been a struggle. They've picked up only 8 points from 12 matches and conceded 25 goals—a defensive record that screams fragility. Over their last five games, they've scored just 5 and shipped 11, losing three of those matches heavily. The 4-1 reverse at Norwich and 3-1 defeat at West Brom show a side vulnerable to pace and intensity. However, their 4-2-3-1 shape under Nicky Hayen offers some structure, and they did hold Wrexham and Middlesbrough to draws recently. Possession and pass accuracy were solid in their last outing (47% and 84%), so there's technical competence there—the issue is converting chances and tightening the back line.
Portsmouth
Portsmouth have steadied the ship considerably. Five wins from 12 games and a goal difference of +1 reflects a more balanced outfit. Their last five matches show 7 goals scored against 6 conceded—a 1.4 and 1.2 per game average respectively. The draw at Wolves on 20 October was a gutsy performance with limited possession (42%) and just 0.71 expected goals, suggesting they're learning to be efficient. The 3-1 win over Lincoln and 2-0 victory at Cardiff demonstrate they can hurt teams on the break. John Mousinho's 4-2-3-1 mirrors Burnley's shape, which could make this a chess match in midfield.
Head-to-head
The head-to-head record favours Burnley, who won 2-1 at home in September 2024 and demolished Portsmouth 5-1 away back in 2012. However, the most recent meeting—a goalless draw in February 2025—suggests Portsmouth have learned how to frustrate their hosts. That scoreline is more telling than the historical blowouts.
Key factors
Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities are the elephant in the room. They average 2.08 goals conceded per game, and Portsmouth's ability to transition quickly could exploit that. Conversely, Burnley's 1.42 goals per game average, combined with Portsmouth's stingier defence (1.25 conceded per game), means clear-cut chances will be at a premium. The midfield battle will decide this—Burnley's Umar Raghouber (7.9 rating) and Portsmouth's Ayoub Segecic (7.11) are the creative fulcrums. Set pieces could prove decisive given both sides' defensive frailties.
Prediction
The expected goals are level at 1.52 each, and the bookmakers' odds reflect genuine uncertainty. Both teams to score sits at 59%, and over 2.5 goals at 53%—both lean slightly towards an open game. Burnley's home advantage is real, but Portsmouth's superior recent form and defensive solidity offer genuine counterweight. The model sees this as a coin-flip, with the pick landing marginally on the home side.
This match is too close to call. Burnley's home record and Portsmouth's away form create competing narratives that cancel each other out. Expect a tight, cagey affair where both sides will be wary of the other's strengths. A draw remains very much in play, and goals could go either way. For tactical analysts, this is a fascinating midfield duel that will likely be decided by who controls possession in the final third and capitalises on limited opportunities.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Burnley
L
L
D
W
D
Portsmouth
W
D
W
W
L
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 10 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 11 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 12 |  Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 |
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Burnley vs Portsmouth - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Burnley vs Portsmouth football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.