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Millwall vs Derby Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 31-10-2026
Oct 3115:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Millwall 1-0 Derby
MillwallDrawDerby
Millwall host Derby at The Den on 31 October in a Championship regular season fixture that pits a mid-table side against one struggling near the bottom. The hosts sit 13th with 15 points from 12 games, while Derby occupy 23rd with just 7 points from the same number of matches. This is a chance for Millwall to build on their stronger league position, while Derby desperately need a result to arrest their alarming slide.
Team form
Millwall
Millwall's recent record is mixed. They won 3-0 at home to Norwich and 2-0 away at Bristol City in August, but have since suffered heavy defeats: losing 1-5 at Southampton and 0-3 at home to Wrexham in their last two outings. Over their last five games they have scored 7 and conceded 8, averaging 1.4 goals for and 1.6 against. Under Alex Neil's 3-1-4-2 formation, they have shown defensive vulnerability in their last appearance, managing just 39% possession and zero shots on goal against Wrexham.
Derby
Derby are in genuine trouble. They have won just once in their last five matches—a 2-0 away victory at Portsmouth—and have otherwise lost four times, including heavy defeats of 0-3 at West Ham and 0-3 at home to Swansea. Their attacking output is particularly concerning: 3 goals in five games (0.6 per match) and 9 conceded (1.8 per match). In their most recent outing against Birmingham, they managed 60% possession and 1.11 expected goals but still lost 1-2, suggesting their problems run deeper than just chance creation.
Head-to-head
Millwall hold a commanding head-to-head advantage. In their last five meetings, Millwall have won three times and drawn once, with Derby's sole victory coming in December 2017. Millwall won 1-0 away in both their most recent encounters in 2019, and have not lost to Derby since 2017.
Key factors
Millwall's home record and Derby's away form create a stark contrast. The hosts average 1.58 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game this season, while Derby average just 0.83 scored and 1.75 conceded—a significant gap in both attacking and defensive metrics. Derby's inability to score combined with Millwall's home advantage and superior recent record against this opponent suggests the hosts should control proceedings. However, Millwall's last two performances have been poor, and Derby showed they can create chances in their recent loss to Birmingham, so complacency could be costly.
Prediction
Millwall are the favourite to win. They possess a clear edge in league position, head-to-head record, and season-long output. Derby's defensive fragility and chronic lack of goals make them vulnerable, particularly away from home. While Millwall have been inconsistent lately, their home record and the gulf in quality between the sides point to a home victory. The expected goal balance favours the hosts, and the bookmakers price them at 1.69 accordingly.
Back Millwall to win. They are the more likely winner and should have the quality to break down a Derby side that has conceded 9 goals in five games. A fairly open game is possible given both teams' recent form, but the hosts' superiority should prevail.
Match info
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Millwall
L
D
L
W
D
Derby
D
L
L
D
D
Injuries & Suspensions
Lineups
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 |  Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 |  West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 |  Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 7 |  Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 8 |  QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 |  Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 |
| 10 |  Sheffield Utd | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 11 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 12 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 14 |  Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 15 |  Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 16 |  Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 17 |  Wrexham | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| 18 |  Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
| 20 |  Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 21 |  Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 |
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Millwall vs Derby - Football Prediction & Betting Tips
Expert Millwall vs Derby football prediction on bettinglike.top combines tactical formation analysis with goal-scoring trends. Our model evaluates penalty statistics, clean sheet records, goalkeeper form, defensive line organization and home-field advantage to identify value in match outcomes and goal markets.
Our football prediction methodology analyzes formation matchups, transition efficiency, set-piece vulnerability and injury impact on tactical setup. Compare odds from multiple bookmakers and discover predictions backed by analysis of goal-line actions, corner conversion rates and defensive pressure patterns across multiple possession phases.