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Sambor Tczew vs SMS Kwidzyn Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 05-11-2026
Nov 519:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Sambor Tczew 32-34 SMS Kwidzyn
Sambor TczewDrawSMS Kwidzyn
Sambor Tczew host SMS Kwidzyn in I Liga on 5 November 2026, a meeting between two struggling sides in the Polish top division. Tczew sit 14th with no wins from seven games; Kwidzyn are 10th with two wins from eight. Both teams arrive in poor form and have conceded heavily in recent weeks, setting up a fixture where defensive frailty may dominate the narrative.
Team form
Sambor Tczew
Sambor Tczew have lost all five recent matches and are leaking goals at an alarming rate. Over their last five outings they conceded 41.4 per game while scoring only 24.8. The most recent defeat came away at Morag, where they lost 18-45. At home against Jeziorak they managed 23 but still fell 23-41. The pattern is consistent: Tczew's defence is porous, and their attack lacks the firepower to compensate. No wins in seven games leaves them rooted to the foot of the standings.
SMS Kwidzyn
SMS Kwidzyn have also lost their last five matches but show marginally better attacking output. They scored 28.2 per game over that span against 37.4 conceded—a healthier ratio than their hosts. Their most recent outing at home against Olsztyn ended 26-33, a closer contest than Tczew's recent defeats. Kwidzyn have won twice this season, suggesting they possess enough quality to trouble Tczew, though their own defensive record remains poor.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings between these sides are on record, so there is no historical pattern to draw upon. Both teams enter the fixture on equal footing in that regard.
Key factors
The decisive factor is likely to be which defence holds up better. Tczew have conceded 207 goals in five games; Kwidzyn 187. Both are shipping 37+ per game on average, which is unsustainable at any level. Tczew's home record offers no comfort—they lost 23-41 at home to Jeziorak. Kwidzyn's two wins this season suggest they have moments of cohesion that Tczew have yet to find. The visitors' slightly better attacking average (28.2 vs 24.8) and superior recent defensive record, albeit marginal, tilt the balance. Tczew's inability to win at home or away, combined with Kwidzyn's two victories, hints that the visitors are the marginally more functional unit.
Prediction
Kwidzyn are the favourite here, though the margin is not commanding. At 58% implied probability, they represent the more likely winner, but this is a fixture between two teams struggling to impose structure. The expected goal balance slightly favours the visitors, and their two season wins versus Tczew's zero suggest greater tactical stability. However, Tczew's home advantage and the general volatility of matches between weak defences means an upset or a draw cannot be ruled out. The model predicts a narrow away victory.
Back SMS Kwidzyn to win. They are the favourite, albeit a modest one, and their two season victories mark them as the more reliable proposition. Tczew's winless record and defensive fragility at home make them poor value. For fantasy league purposes, expect a high-scoring affair—both teams concede freely—but Kwidzyn's marginally superior attack should edge it.
Match info
Tournaments:
I Liga(2026)
Type
League
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Sambor Tczew
L
L
L
L
L
SMS Kwidzyn
L
L
L
L
L
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morag | 8 | 7 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 |  Grudziadz | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 3 |  Mazur Sierpc | 8 | 7 | 1 | 21 |
| 4 |  Olsztyn | 8 | 7 | 1 | 21 |
| 5 |  Jeziorak | 8 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 |  Bydgoszcz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Wejherowo | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 |  SMS ZPRP Plock | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 |  Silvant Elblag | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 |  SMS Kwidzyn | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 11 |  Bartoszyce | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Czersk | 8 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 13 |  Wybrzeze Gdansk II | 8 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 |  Sambor Tczew | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 1 |  Oborniki Slaskie | 8 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 |  Swiebodzin | 8 | 7 | 1 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ol.Grodkow | 8 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 |  Nowa Sol | 8 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 |  Zielona Gora | 8 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 |  Oborniki | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 |  Olawa | 8 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Buk | 8 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 9 |  Real Astromal Leszno | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 |  SKPR Swidnica | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 11 |  Koscian | 8 | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 |  Wolsztyn | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 |  Gryfino | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 |  Orlik Brzeg | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| 1 |  Anilana Lodz | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 |  Konskie | 8 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
| 3 |  Wielun | 7 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 |  Zwolen | 6 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 |  Warszawianka | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 |  UW Warszawa | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Trojka Ostroleka | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 |  Pabianice | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 |  AZS AWF Warszawa | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 |  UMCS Lublin | 7 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Lider Radom | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Nowe Piekuty | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Konin | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 |  Strzalkowo | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| 1 |  Przeworsk | 8 | 8 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 |  Palac Tarnow | 8 | 7 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 |  Viret Zawiercie | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 4 |  Olimpia Piekary | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| 5 |  Zaglebie Sosnowiec | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 |  Wybicki Kielce | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 |  SMS Kielce II | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 |  Zawadzkie | 7 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Chrzanow | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 |  Komprachcice | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 12 |  Ruda Slaska | 8 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 |  Zabrze II | 8 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 |  Gwardia Opole II | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
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