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Mistra (Est) vs Viljandi (Est) Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 15-11-2026
Nov 1513:00
28 : 24
Match Prediction
Expected score: Mistra (Est) 25-26 Viljandi (Est)
Mistra (Est)DrawViljandi (Est)
Mistra and Viljandi meet in the Baltic League on 15 November in a contest between two Estonian sides separated by just two points in the standings. Mistra sit fifth with 4 points from four games, while Viljandi hold third place on 6 points. Both teams arrive with mixed recent form, setting up a competitive fixture with little to separate them.
Team form
Mistra (Est)
Mistra have won two of their last five matches but lost three, including back-to-back defeats to BK-46 in European Cup play. Their Baltic League record is more encouraging: they beat ASK/MSG 29-28 and Tenax Dobele 29-24 in early October, showing they can compete at this level. However, a heavy 20-33 loss to Sviesa on 27 September highlights their vulnerability. Over the five-game sample, Mistra averaged 24.8 goals for and 28.4 against, suggesting their defence has been a concern.
Viljandi (Est)
Viljandi have also struggled recently, losing three of their last five outings. A narrow 22-24 defeat to Tapa came just four days ago, and they lost 27-29 at home to Polva Serviti. Their Baltic League form is steadier: they won 21-20 at Sviesa and 31-26 at home to Tenax Dobele, but fell 29-30 away to Dragunas Klaipeda. Across five games, Viljandi averaged 26.0 goals for and 25.8 against—a more balanced attacking and defensive profile than their hosts.
Head-to-head
No head-to-head record exists between these sides in the available data.
Key factors
Viljandi's superior goal difference and tighter defensive record give them an edge in this matchup. They have conceded just 25.8 goals per game compared to Mistra's 28.4, a meaningful gap over a season. Mistra's recent European Cup commitments may have affected their focus, though their two Baltic League wins show they can raise their level. The away side's consistency in scoring—26.0 per game—suggests they can trouble Mistra's leaky defence. Mistra will need their home advantage to count, but recent results do not inspire confidence that they can shut out Viljandi's attack.
Prediction
The model rates Viljandi as a slight favourite despite Mistra's home advantage. This reflects Viljandi's superior recent form, better defensive record, and more balanced goal difference. Mistra's defensive fragility—conceding nearly 3 goals more per game than their opponents—is the decisive factor. The expected goal balance slightly favours Viljandi, and their consistency in both attack and defence makes them marginally more likely to prevail. A narrow away win fits the underlying metrics.
Viljandi hold a narrow edge in this Baltic League encounter. Their tighter defence and more consistent attacking output over recent weeks position them as slight favourites, though Mistra's home ground and capacity to score—as shown in their October wins—means this is a competitive fixture. Expect a close contest that could go either way, with the away side marginally more likely to take the points.
Match info
Tournaments:
Baltic League(2026)
Type
Cup
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Mistra (Est)
W
W
L
L
W
Viljandi (Est)
L
L
L
W
W
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dragunas Klaipeda | 6 | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 |  Polva Serviti | 6 | 5 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 |  Viljandi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Mistra | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Sviesa | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 6 |  Cocks | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 |  Tenax Dobele | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 8 |  ASK/MSG | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| 1 |  Tapa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Pieno zvaigzdes | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Granitas-Karys | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 |  HK Ogre/RSU | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 5 |  Vilnius | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
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