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Tapa (Est) vs Vilnius (Ltu) Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips - 15-11-2026
Nov 1512:00
Match Prediction
Expected score: Tapa (Est) 31-28 Vilnius (Ltu)
Tapa (Est)DrawVilnius (Ltu)
Tapa hosts Vilnius in the Baltic League on 15 November, a matchup that pits the third-placed Estonian side against fourth-placed Lithuania. Tapa enter with a win under their belt in the league phase, while Vilnius are still searching for their first victory. The hosts are favoured, but this is no foregone conclusion.
Team form
Tapa (Est)
Tapa have been inconsistent across their recent fixtures. They scored 24 goals in a home win over Viljandi on 11 November, but that result masks deeper problems. Over their last five matches across all competitions, they averaged 26.0 goals for and 27.0 against — a concerning defensive record. Two of those five outings ended in defeat: a 24-28 loss to Kehra and a heavy 22-36 reverse at Polva Serviti. Their sole Baltic League outing before this one saw them edge Pieno zvaigzdes 26-25, a narrow margin that suggests they are not dominating at this level.
Vilnius (Ltu)
Vilnius have been leakier still. Over five recent matches, they averaged 31.2 goals for but conceded 34.6 per game — a defensive frailty that has cost them. They lost three of those five, including a 31-39 defeat to Dragunas Klaipeda and a 29-32 loss at Alytaus. Their sole win in that stretch came 32-31 at Varenos, again a tight affair. Vilnius can score freely — their 32-goal haul against Sviesa proves that — but they cannot stop opponents. That vulnerability will be tested by a Tapa side that, while inconsistent, has shown they can put the ball in the net.
Head-to-head
No head-to-head record exists between these teams.
Key factors
Defensive solidity will decide this. Tapa conceded 27.0 per game over five matches; Vilnius conceded 34.6. The gap is stark. Tapa's attack, averaging 26.0 goals, is slightly less prolific than Vilnius's 31.2, but Tapa's defence is materially stronger. Vilnius's inability to tighten up — they have shipped 39 and 41 goals in two separate outings — suggests they will struggle to contain Tapa's scoring threat. Conversely, Tapa's leaky backline gives Vilnius hope of keeping pace on the scoreboard. Both teams favour high-scoring affairs; neither has shown the discipline to grind out low-scoring wins. Expect goals from both sides.
Prediction
The model rates Tapa as the favourite at 61%, with a draw at just 5% and an away win at 34%. That probability gap reflects Tapa's superior defensive record and their early league win. Vilnius's poor away record in their domestic league and their defensive frailties tip the balance toward the hosts. However, Vilnius's offensive firepower means they are far from without chance. The predicted scoreline of 31-28 to Tapa reflects the high-scoring nature of both teams and the marginal gap in their quality. This is not a mismatch; it is a close contest tilted toward the home side.
Back Tapa as the favourite. Their defence is notably better than Vilnius's, and they have already won in the Baltic League this season. Vilnius will score, and bettors should expect a high-scoring affair, but Tapa's edge in structure and recent league form makes them the more likely winner. For fantasy purposes, prioritize Tapa's attacking players while respecting Vilnius's scoring threat.
Match info
Tournaments:
Baltic League(2026)
Type
Cup
Statistics
Odds Comparison
Recent Form
Tapa
W
L
L
W
W
Vilnius
L
W
L
W
L
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dragunas Klaipeda | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 |  Polva Serviti | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 |  Viljandi | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 |  Cocks | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 5 |  Sviesa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 6 |  Mistra | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 |  Tenax Dobele | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 8 |  ASK/MSG | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 1 |  Tapa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 |  Granitas-Karys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Pieno zvaigzdes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 4 |  HK Ogre/RSU | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 5 |  Vilnius | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
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